Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model

Epidemiology and Infection
Q L JingJ H Lu

Abstract

Dengue is the fastest spreading mosquito-transmitted disease in the world. In China, Guangzhou City is believed to be the most important epicenter of dengue outbreaks although the transmission patterns are still poorly understood. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model incorporating external regressors to examine the association between the monthly number of locally acquired dengue infections and imported cases, mosquito densities, temperature and precipitation in Guangzhou. In multivariate analysis, imported cases and minimum temperature (both at lag 0) were both associated with the number of locally acquired infections (P < 0.05). This multivariate model performed best, featuring the lowest fitting root mean squared error (RMSE) (0.7520), AIC (393.7854) and test RMSE (0.6445), as well as the best effect in model validation for testing outbreak with a sensitivity of 1.0000, a specificity of 0.7368 and a consistency rate of 0.7917. Our findings suggest that imported cases and minimum temperature are two key determinants of dengue local transmission in Guangzhou. The modelling method can be used to predict dengue transmission in non-endemic countries and to inform dengue prevention and control strategies.

References

Jan 1, 1987·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·D M WattsA Nisalak
Feb 1, 1993·The American Journal of Cardiology·M TedderJ E Lowe
Oct 29, 2009·BMC Public Health·Liang LuQiyong Liu
May 8, 2010·Science·Wanwisa DejnirattisaiGavin Screaton
Aug 21, 2010·Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinics of North America·Philip E Cryer
Feb 16, 2011·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·Shahera BanuShilu Tong
Mar 25, 2011·Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology·Adhistya Erna PermanasariP Dhanapal Durai Dominic
Apr 20, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Louis LambrechtsThomas W Scott
May 3, 2012·Journal of Vector Ecology : Journal of the Society for Vector Ecology·Lei LuoZhi-cong Yang
Nov 7, 2012·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Anna L BuczakSheryl H Lewis
Jan 2, 2013·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Hu Suk LeeGeorge E Moore
Jan 2, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Steven T StoddardThomas W Scott
Feb 26, 2013·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Donald S ShepardYara A Halasa
Apr 9, 2013·Nature·Samir BhattSimon I Hay
Sep 24, 2013·Environmental Health Perspectives·Cory W MorinKacey Ernst
Mar 3, 2015·Journal of Travel Medicine·Sittisede Polwiang
May 15, 2015·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Cong WangQi Dai
May 29, 2015·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Shaowei SangQiyong Liu
Sep 17, 2015·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Senanayake A M Kularatne
Oct 7, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Willem G van PanhuisDerek A T Cummings
Nov 7, 2015·Science·Annelies Wilder-Smith, Duane J Gubler
Dec 15, 2015·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Sudarat ChadsuthiCharin Modchang
Dec 30, 2015·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Mikkel B QuamAnnelies Wilder-Smith

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jul 28, 2020·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Yu-Chieh ChengHsiao-Hui Tsou
Mar 18, 2020·Scientific Reports·Loukas SamarasMiguel-Angel Sicilia
Mar 14, 2021·Scientific Reports·Loshini ThiruchelvamBalvinder Singh Gill
Jul 3, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Rui ZhangYonghong Li
Oct 21, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Panjun GaoQiyong Liu

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.