Improving the realism of deterministic multi-strain models: implications for modelling influenza A

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Pavlo Minayev, Neil M Ferguson

Abstract

Understanding the interaction between epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics for antigenically variable pathogens remains a challenge, particularly if analytical insight is wanted. In particular, while a variety of relatively complex simulation models have reproduced the evolutionary dynamics of influenza, simpler models have given less satisfying descriptions of the patterns seen in data. Here, we develop a set of relatively simple deterministic models of the transmission dynamics of multi-strain pathogens which give increased biological realism compared with past work. We allow the intensity of cross-immunity generated against one strain given exposure to a different strain to depend on the extent of genetic difference between the strains. We show that the dynamics of this model are determined by the interplay of parameters defining the cross-immune response function and can include fully symmetric equilibria, self-organized strain structures, regular periodic and chaotic regimes. We then extend the model by incorporating transient strain-transcending immunity that acts as a density-dependent mechanism to lower overall infection prevalence and thus pathogen diversity. We conclude that while some aspects of the evolution of...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 31, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Caroline O BuckeeSunetra Gupta
Oct 21, 2009·PloS One·Sébastien BallesterosBernard Cazelles
Aug 2, 2012·Genetics·Natalja Strelkowa, Michael Lässig
Nov 21, 2013·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Konstantin B Blyuss
Jan 31, 2012·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Konstantin B Blyuss
Feb 3, 2016·Virulence·Tomás Aquino, Ana Nunes
Apr 10, 2013·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Ryosuke Omori, Akira Sasaki
Apr 7, 2015·Epidemics·Paul S WikramaratnaJulia R Gog
Mar 25, 2015·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Adam J KucharskiJulia R Gog
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Nov 10, 2016·PloS One·Mayumbo NyirendaKimihito Ito
Feb 28, 2014·Nature·Marta Luksza, Michael Lässig
Dec 3, 2017·Chaos·Larissa BauerKonstantin B Blyuss
Jan 3, 2021·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Mohammed H Alharbi, Christopher M Kribs
Feb 11, 2021·PLoS Computational Biology·Blake J M WilliamsLaurent Hébert-Dufresne

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