Incorporating demographic stochasticity into multi-strain epidemic models: application to influenza A

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Pavlo Minayev, Neil Ferguson

Abstract

We develop mathematical models of the transmission and evolution of multi-strain pathogens that incorporate strain extinction and the stochastic generation of new strains via mutation. The dynamics resulting from these models is then examined with the applied aim of understanding the mechanisms underpinning the evolution and dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, such as human influenza viruses. Our approach, while analytically relatively simple, gives results that are qualitatively similar to those obtained from much more complex individually based simulation models. We examine strain dynamics as a function of cross-immunity and key transmission parameters, and show that introducing strain extinction and modelling mutation as a stochastic process significantly changes the model dynamics, leading to lower strain diversity, reduced infection prevalence and shorter strain lifetimes. Finally, we incorporate transient strain-transcending immunity in the model and demonstrate that it reduces strain diversity further, giving patterns of sequential strain replacement similar to that seen in human influenza A viruses.

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Citations

May 17, 2011·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Ira B SchwartzLeah B Shaw
Feb 3, 2016·Virulence·Tomás Aquino, Ana Nunes
Mar 31, 2010·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Eric ForgostonIra B Schwartz
Feb 11, 2012·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Nimalan ArinaminpathyBryan T Grenfell
Apr 11, 2018·Evolutionary Applications·José LourençoMario Recker
Jun 17, 2020·PLoS Computational Biology·Wan YangBenjamin J Cowling
Nov 10, 2013·PLoS Computational Biology·José Lourenço, Mario Recker
Mar 25, 2015·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Adam J KucharskiJulia R Gog

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