Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century.

The Science of the Total Environment
Vedaste IyakaremyeBrian Ayugi

Abstract

Previous studies warned that heat extremes are likely to intensify and frequently occur in the future due to climate change. Apart from changing climate, the population's size and distribution contribute to the total changes in the population exposed to heat extremes. The present study uses the ensemble mean of global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) and population projection to assess the future changes in high-temperature extremes and exposure to the population by the middle of this century (2041-2060) in Africa compared to the recent climate taken from 1991 to 2010. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are used. Changes in population exposure and its contributors are quantified at continental and for various sub-regions. The intensity of high-temperature extremes is anticipated to escalate between 0.25 to 1.8 °C and 0.6 to 4 °C under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with Sahara and West Southern Africa projected to warm faster than the rest of the regions. On average, warm days' frequency is also expected to upsurge under SSP2-4.5 (26-59%) and SSP5-8.5 (30-69%) relative to the recent climate. By the mid-21st century, continental population...Continue Reading

References

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Mar 20, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Sanjit Kumar MondalTong Jiang
Mar 28, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Feng Ma, Xing Yuan

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