Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage

Nature Climate Change
Rupert SeidlPieter Johannes Verkerk

Abstract

Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20(th) century (1). Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase (2), yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget (3,4), and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests (5). Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21(st) century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·10(6) m(3) of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future ...Continue Reading

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References

Jul 27, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Anthony L WesterlingMichael G Ryan
Oct 5, 2013·Science·S L StephensM G Turner

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Citations

Mar 12, 2016·The Journal of Applied Ecology·Rupert SeidlJeffrey A Hicke
Oct 7, 2015·Journal of Environmental Management·Thomas DirnböckRalf Kiese
Jan 1, 2015·Nature Plants·Pieter De FrenneKris Verheyen
Jan 1, 2015·Nature Plants·Michael Scherer-Lorenzen
May 27, 2015·Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society·Dominik Thom, Rupert Seidl
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Sep 17, 2016·Carbon Balance and Management·Roberto PilliRaúl Abad Viñas
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Nov 9, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Rupert SeidlMonica G Turner
Dec 3, 2016·Nature Plants·Daniel HouleLouis Duchesne
Jan 6, 2017·Scientific Data·Achille MauriJesús San-Miguel-Ayanz
Jan 5, 2017·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Martin MacekAnton Fischer
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Apr 14, 2017·Ecology and Evolution·Norbert HelmThomas Dirnböck
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Jan 13, 2018·Scientific Reports·Rasoul YousefpourMarc Hanewinkel

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