Increasing the robustness of phenological models for Vitis vinifera cv. Chardonnay.

International Journal of Biometeorology
Amelia Caffarra, Emanuele Eccel

Abstract

Phenological models are important tools for planning viticultural practices in the short term and for projecting the impact of climate change on grapevine (Vitis vinifera) in the long term. However, the difficulties in obtaining phenological models which provide accurate predictions on a regional scale prevent them from being exploited to their full potential. The aim of this work was to obtain a robust phenological model for V. vinifera cv. Chardonnay. During calibration of the sub-models for budburst, flowering and veraison we implemented a series of measures to prevent overfitting and to give greater physiological meaning to the models. Among these were the use of experimental information on the response of Chardonnay to forcing temperatures, restriction of parameter space into physiologically meaningful limits prior to calibration, and simplification of the previously selected sub-models. The resulting process-based model had good internal validity and a good level of accuracy in predicting phenological events from external datasets. Model performance was especially high for the prediction of flowering and veraison, and comparison with other models confirmed it as a better predictor of phenology, even in extremely warm year...Continue Reading

References

Nov 18, 2000·Journal of Theoretical Biology·I Chuine
Aug 16, 2006·International Journal of Biometeorology·Roberto Rea, Emanuele Eccel
Mar 13, 2009·International Journal of Biometeorology·Iñaki García de Cortázar-AtauriJean Pierre Gaudillere
Sep 1, 1989·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·M C Press

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Citations

Nov 26, 2010·International Journal of Biometeorology·Mirjana RumlAna Vuković
Nov 30, 2010·International Journal of Biometeorology·Amelia Caffarra, Alison Donnelly
Jul 19, 2011·The New Phytologist·Caroline A Polgar, Richard B Primack
Oct 21, 2016·Global Change Biology·Jonathan R MosedaleIlya M D Maclean
May 21, 2017·International Journal of Biometeorology·Alison Donnelly, Rong Yu
Jun 19, 2019·International Journal of Biometeorology·Alison Donnelly, Rong Yu

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