Individual-Based Modeling of Tuberculosis in a User-Friendly Interface: Understanding the Epidemiological Role of Population Heterogeneity in a City

Frontiers in Microbiology
Clara PratsDaniel López

Abstract

For millennia tuberculosis (TB) has shown a successful strategy to survive, making it one of the world's deadliest infectious diseases. This resilient behavior is based not only on remaining hidden in most of the infected population, but also by showing slow evolution in most sick people. The course of the disease within a population is highly related to its heterogeneity. Thus, classic epidemiological approaches with a top-down perspective have not succeeded in understanding its dynamics. In the past decade a few individual-based models were built, but most of them preserved a top-down view that makes it difficult to study a heterogeneous population. We propose an individual-based model developed with a bottom-up approach to studying the dynamics of pulmonary TB in a certain population, considered constant. Individuals may belong to the following classes: healthy, infected, sick, under treatment, and treated with a probability of relapse. Several variables and parameters account for their age, origin (native or immigrant), immunodeficiency, diabetes, and other risk factors (smoking and alcoholism). The time within each infection state is controlled, and sick individuals may show a cavitated disease or not that conditions infec...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 15, 2020·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Marissa Renardy, Denise E Kirschner

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