Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control.

BMC Public Health
Madison StoddardArijit Chakravarty

Abstract

The word 'pandemic' conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2-its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread-exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with measures aimed at limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Our modeling demonstrates that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic diseas...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 1, 2021·American Journal of Public Health·Larisa G Tereshchenko

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