Infection vulnerability stratification risk modelling of COVID-19 data: a deterministic SEIR epidemic model analysis.

Annals of Operations Research
Ajay KumarKim Hua Tan

Abstract

Basic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models of COVID-19 dynamics tend to be excessively pessimistic due to high basic reproduction values, which result in overestimations of cases of infection and death. We propose an extended SEIR model and daily data of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and the seven largest European countries to forecast possible pandemic dynamics by investigating the effects of infection vulnerability stratification and measures on preventing the spread of infection. We assume that (i) the number of cases would be underestimated at the beginning of a new virus pandemic due to the lack of effective diagnostic methods and (ii) people more susceptible to infection are more likely to become infected; whereas during the later stages, the chances of infection among others will be reduced, thereby potentially leading to pandemic cessation. Based on infection vulnerability stratification, we demonstrate effects brought by the fraction of infected persons in the population at the start of pandemic deceleration on the cumulative fraction of the infected population. We interestingly show that moderate and long-lasting preventive measures are more effective than more rigid measures, which tend to be eventually ...Continue Reading

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