Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.

Wellcome Open Research
Thibaut JombartW John Edmunds

Abstract

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

References

Mar 30, 2017·Epidemics·Pierre NouvelletSteven Riley
Jan 23, 2020·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Thibaut JombartIbrahima Socé Fall
Feb 6, 2020·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Julien Riou, Christian L Althaus
Feb 20, 2020·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Sibylle Bernard Stoecklin Investigation Team
Jun 13, 2020·Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives·UNKNOWN Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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Citations

Aug 22, 2020·Proceedings. Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Richard O J H StuttJohn Colvin
Nov 26, 2020·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Iwona HawrylukSamir Bhatt
May 27, 2021·Royal Society Open Science·Rama ContRenyuan Xu

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Software Mentioned

Zenodo
R
R scripts

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