Inferring the Spatio-temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission from Surveillance Data in Guangzhou, China

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Guanghu ZhuBenyun Shi


Dengue is a serious vector-borne disease, and incidence rates have significantly increased during the past few years, particularly in 2014 in Guangzhou. The current situation is more complicated, due to various factors such as climate warming, urbanization, population increase, and human mobility. The purpose of this study is to detect dengue transmission patterns and identify the disease dispersion dynamics in Guangzhou, China. We conducted surveys in 12 districts of Guangzhou, and collected daily data of Breteau index (BI) and reported cases between September and November 2014 from the public health authority reports. Based on the available data and the Ross-Macdonald theory, we propose a dengue transmission model that systematically integrates entomologic, demographic, and environmental information. In this model, we use (1) BI data and geographic variables to evaluate the spatial heterogeneities of Aedes mosquitoes, (2) a radiation model to simulate the daily mobility of humans, and (3) a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate the model parameters. By implementing our proposed model, we can (1) estimate the incidence rates of dengue, and trace the infection time and locations, (2) assess risk factors and evaluat...Continue Reading


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