Influence of population mobility on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic: based on panel data from Hubei, China.

Global Health Research and Policy
Junfeng Jiang, Lisha Luo

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first reported in Wuhan, China. The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19, but it still needs more empirical discussion. Based on the panel data from Hubei, China between January 6th and February 6th, 2020, a random effects model was used to estimate the impact of population mobility on the transmission of COVID-19. Stata version 12.0 was used, and p < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The COVID-19 was more likely to be confirmed within 11-12 days after people moved from Wuhan to 16 other prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province, which suggests a period of 11-12 days from contact to being confirmed. The daily confirmed cases and daily increment in incidence in 16 prefecture-level cities show obvious declines 9-12 days post adaptation of city lockdown at the local level. Population mobility is found to be a driver to the rapid transmission of COVID-19, and the lockdown intervention in local prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province has been an effective strategy to block the COVID-19 epidemic.

References

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Citations

Sep 11, 2020·Journal of Medical Virology·Hisato Takagi
Nov 10, 2020·Journal of Medical Virology·Juan M C Larrosa
Mar 5, 2021·Scientific Reports·Philip J TurkAndrew McWilliams
Apr 5, 2021·Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease·Hisato Takagi
Apr 28, 2021·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Jiachen NingHui Zhang

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Software Mentioned

Excel
Stata

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