Influenza pandemic preparedness in France: modelling the impact of interventions.

Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health
Aoife DoyleJean-Claude Desenclos

Abstract

Influenza pandemics result in excess mortality and social disruption. To assist health authorities update the French pandemic plan, the authors estimated the number of health events (cases, hospitalisations, and deaths) in a pandemic and compared interventions in terms of impact and efficiency. A Monte Carlo simulation model, incorporating probability distributions of key variables, provided estimates of health events (HE) by age and risk group. Input variables were set after literature and expert consultation. The impact of targeted influenza vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis/treatment (oseltamivir) in high risk groups (elderly, chronic diseases), priority (essential professionals), and total populations was compared. Outcome measures were HE avoided, number of doses needed, and direct cost per HE avoided. Without intervention, an influenza pandemic could result in 14.9 million cases, 0.12 million deaths, and 0.6 million hospitalisations in France. Twenty four per cent of deaths and 40% of hospitalisations would be among high risk groups. With a 25% attack rate, 2000-86,000 deaths could be avoided, depending on population targeted and intervention. If available initially, vaccination of the total population is preferred. I...Continue Reading

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