Initial eyewitness confidence reliably predicts eyewitness identification accuracy

The American Psychologist
John T WixtedHenry L Roediger

Abstract

Eyewitness memory is widely believed to be unreliable because (a) high-confidence eyewitness misidentifications played a role in over 70% of the now more than 300 DNA exonerations of wrongfully convicted men and women, (b) forensically relevant laboratory studies have often reported a weak relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy, and (c) memory is sufficiently malleable that, not infrequently, people (including eyewitnesses) can be led to remember events differently from the way the events actually happened. In light of such evidence, many researchers agree that confidence statements made by eyewitnesses in a court of law (in particular, the high confidence they often express at trial) should be discounted, if not disregarded altogether. But what about confidence statements made by eyewitnesses at the time of the initial identification (e.g., from a lineup), before there is much opportunity for memory contamination to occur? A considerable body of recent empirical work suggests that confidence may be a highly reliable indicator of accuracy at that time, which fits with longstanding theoretical models of recognition memory. Counterintuitively, an appreciation of this fact could do more to protect innocent defenda...Continue Reading

Citations

Dec 25, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John T WixtedWilliam Wells
Jun 16, 2016·Frontiers in Psychology·Laura AlhoMats J Olsson
Oct 6, 2016·Royal Society Open Science·Travis M Seale-Carlisle, Laura Mickes
Apr 12, 2017·Psychological Science in the Public Interest : a Journal of the American Psychological Society·Laura MickesScott D Gronlund
May 3, 2018·Perspectives on Psychological Science : a Journal of the Association for Psychological Science·John T WixtedRonald P Fisher
Dec 30, 2017·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Eylul Tekin, Henry L Roediger
Jul 26, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Thomas D Albright
Nov 8, 2019·Perspectives on Psychological Science : a Journal of the Association for Psychological Science·Brian W Bauer, Daniel W Capron
Feb 10, 2017·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Ryan M McAdoo, Scott D Gronlund
Jun 15, 2019·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Wenbo LinHenry L Roediger
Sep 22, 2018·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Thao B NguyenKathy Pezdek
Jun 25, 2019·Respirology : Official Journal of the Asian Pacific Society of Respirology·Jingyi ShaoFay H Johnston
Jul 16, 2020·Nature Communications·Sergei GepshteinThomas D Albright
Feb 10, 2017·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Sarah E Stanley, Aaron S Benjamin
Apr 12, 2017·Psychological Science in the Public Interest : a Journal of the American Psychological Society·John T Wixted, Gary L Wells
Apr 16, 2019·Frontiers in Psychology·Philip U GustafssonFredrik U Jönsson
Sep 3, 2017·Psychiatry, Psychology, and Law : an Interdisciplinary Journal of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law·Emily Pica, Joanna Pozzulo
Nov 9, 2018·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Eylul TekinHenry L Roediger
Nov 9, 2019·Memory·Renan Benigno SaraivaPeter J van Koppen
Aug 2, 2020·Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications·Ann HsuPhilip Tseng
Nov 25, 2020·Memory·Shari R BerkowitzElizabeth F Loftus
May 26, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Thomas D Albright

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