Integrating broad-scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird
Abstract
Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence-environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi-site count and capture-recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixt...Continue Reading
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