Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
Olivier Restif, Bryan T Grenfell

Abstract

Models for the diversity and evolution of pathogens have branched into two main directions: the adaptive dynamics of quantitative life-history traits (notably virulence) and the maintenance and invasion of multiple, antigenically diverse strains that interact with the host's immune memory. In a first attempt to reconcile these two approaches, we developed a simple modelling framework where two strains of pathogens, defined by a pair of life-history traits (infectious period and infectivity), interfere through a given level of cross-immunity. We used whooping cough as a potential example, but the framework proposed here could be applied to other acute infectious diseases. Specifically, we analysed the effects of these parameters on the invasion dynamics of one strain into a population, where the second strain is endemic. Whereas the deterministic version of the model converges towards stable coexistence of the two strains in most cases, stochastic simulations showed that transient epidemic dynamics can cause the extinction of either strain. Thus ecological dynamics, modulated by the immune parameters, eventually determine the adaptive value of different pathogen genotypes. We advocate an integrative view of pathogen dynamics at ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 11, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Olivier Restif, Bryan T Grenfell
Feb 1, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sylvain Gandon, Troy Day
Aug 19, 2007·Infection and Immunity·Daniel N WolfeEric T Harvill
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Oct 23, 2016·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Tiffany LeungJames M McCaw
May 10, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Chadi M Saad-RoyBryan T Grenfell
Jan 3, 2021·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Mohammed H Alharbi, Christopher M Kribs
Jun 16, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Chadi M Saad-RoyNed S Wingreen

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