Is seizure frequency variance a predictable quantity?

Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology
Daniel M GoldenholzWilliam H Theodore

Abstract

There is currently no formal method for predicting the range expected in an individual's seizure counts. Having access to such a prediction would be of benefit for developing more efficient clinical trials, but also for improving clinical care in the outpatient setting. Using three independently collected patient diary datasets, we explored the predictability of seizure frequency. Three independent seizure diary databases were explored: SeizureTracker (n = 3016), Human Epilepsy Project (n = 93), and NeuroVista (n = 15). First, the relationship between mean and standard deviation in seizure frequency was assessed. Using that relationship, a prediction for the range of possible seizure frequencies was compared with a traditional prediction scheme commonly used in clinical trials. A validation dataset was obtained from a separate data export of SeizureTracker to further verify the predictions. A consistent mathematical relationship was observed across datasets. The logarithm of the average seizure count was linearly related to the logarithm of the standard deviation with a high correlation (R2 > 0.83). The three datasets showed high predictive accuracy for this log-log relationship of 94%, compared with a predictive accuracy of 77...Continue Reading

References

Jul 20, 2004·European Journal of Neurology : the Official Journal of the European Federation of Neurological Societies·H StefanB Schmidt
Jun 2, 2012·Epilepsy & Behavior : E&B·Robert S FisherJacqueline A French
Jul 8, 2015·Annals of Neurology·Daniel M GoldenholzWilliam H Theodore
Aug 25, 2015·Neurology·Jacqueline A FrenchFrancesco Bibbiani
Feb 28, 2016·Epilepsy Research·Daniel M Goldenholz, Shira R Goldenholz
Aug 7, 2017·Epilepsy Research·Daniel M GoldenholzCarl Pieper

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Citations

Feb 13, 2020·Current Opinion in Neurology·Maxime O BaudKaspar Schindler
Aug 2, 2020·Epilepsia·Vikram R RaoMaxime O Baud
Sep 7, 2018·Epilepsia Open·Victor FerastraoaruSheryl R Haut
Nov 15, 2019·Epilepsia·Andreas OliveiraDaniel M Goldenholz
Jun 23, 2020·Annals of Neurology·Daniel M GoldenholzBrandon Westover
Mar 17, 2021·Nature Reviews. Neurology·Philippa J KarolyMaxime O Baud
Nov 3, 2021·European Journal of Neurology : the Official Journal of the European Federation of Neurological Societies·Yueyang LiuLevin Kuhlmann

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Software Mentioned

SeizureTracker
NeuroVista
HEP

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