Is the sustainable development goal target for financial risk protection in health realistic?

BMJ Global Health
Stéphane VerguetMargaret E Kruk

Abstract

Setting Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals for health has largely focused on defining specific targets of mortality and morbidity reduction over given time periods. Yet, less attention has been devoted to setting targets for the systemic determinants of health delivery, such as access and financial risk protection (FRP)-prevention of medical impoverishment. We examined candidate targets for FRP among low and middle-income countries by 2040. We used a data set on estimates of incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE)-medical expenditure exceeding 40% of household capacity to pay-among 110 countries over 1995-2007, augmented by estimates of the percentage of out-of-pocket expenditure out of total health expenditure (OOPEXP), the share of health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (HEXGDP) and the gross domestic product per capita (GDPC). Using a simple model and 2040 estimates for OOPEXP, HEXGDP and GDPC from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, we projected CHE incidence by 2040 for four country income groups. We predicted that the 2040 incidence of CHE among households would be: 2.13% (Uncertainty interval: 0.6...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 29, 2021·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·Pijush Kanti KhanSankaran V Subramanian

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