It's difficult, but important, to make negative predictions

Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology : RTP
Richard V WilliamsJoerg Wichard

Abstract

At the confluence of predictive and regulatory toxicologies, negative predictions may be the thin green line that prevents populations from being exposed to harm. Here, two novel approaches to making confident and robust negative in silico predictions for mutagenicity (as defined by the Ames test) have been evaluated. Analyses of 12 data sets containing >13,000 compounds, showed that negative predictivity is high (∼90%) for the best approach and features that either reduce the accuracy or certainty of negative predictions are identified as misclassified or unclassified respectively. However, negative predictivity remains high (and in excess of the prevalence of non-mutagens) even in the presence of these features, indicating that they are not flags for mutagenicity.

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Citations

May 17, 2017·Critical Reviews in Toxicology·Alan BoobisHeli Miriam Hollnagel
Feb 7, 2017·Food and Chemical Toxicology : an International Journal Published for the British Industrial Biological Research Association·Melissa Van BossuytVera Rogiers
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Dec 10, 2020·Genes and Environment : the Official Journal of the Japanese Environmental Mutagen Society·Masamitsu HonmaKei-Ichi Sugiyama
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Jun 4, 2021·Expert Opinion on Drug Metabolism & Toxicology·Olga Tcheremenskaia, Romualdo Benigni
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Jul 18, 2021·Genes and Environment : the Official Journal of the Japanese Environmental Mutagen Society·Masamitsu HonmaKenichi Masumura
Dec 10, 2020·Chemical Research in Toxicology·Andrew J WedlakePaul J Russell

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