Key risk indicators for accident assessment conditioned on pre-crash vehicle trajectory

Accident; Analysis and Prevention
X ShiC Chai

Abstract

Accident events are generally unexpected and occur rarely. Pre-accident risk assessment by surrogate indicators is an effective way to identify risk levels and thus boost accident prediction. Herein, the concept of Key Risk Indicator (KRI) is proposed, which assesses risk exposures using hybrid indicators. Seven metrics are shortlisted as the basic indicators in KRI, with evaluation in terms of risk behaviour, risk avoidance, and risk margin. A typical real-world chain-collision accident and its antecedent (pre-crash) road traffic movements are retrieved from surveillance video footage, and a grid remapping method is proposed for data extraction and coordinates transformation. To investigate the feasibility of each indicator in risk assessment, a temporal-spatial case-control is designed. By comparison, Time Integrated Time-to-collision (TIT) performs better in identifying pre-accident risk conditions; while Crash Potential Index (CPI) is helpful in further picking out the severest ones (the near-accident). Based on TIT and CPI, the expressions of KRIs are developed, which enable us to evaluate risk severity with three levels, as well as the likelihood. KRI-based risk assessment also reveals predictive insights about a potentia...Continue Reading

Citations

Mar 4, 2020·Traffic Injury Prevention·Zouhair Elamrani Abou ElassadHassan Al Moatassime
Jan 20, 2021·Accident; Analysis and Prevention·Young JoCheol Oh
Feb 1, 2020·Accident; Analysis and Prevention·Jianqing WuHao Xu

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