Large ensemble flood loss modelling and uncertainty assessment for future climate conditions for a Swiss pre-alpine catchment

The Science of the Total Environment
Luise KellerOlivia Martius

Abstract

Information on possible changes in future flood risk is essential for successful adaptation planning and risk management. However, various sources of uncertainty arise along the model chains used for the assessment of flood risk under climate change. Knowledge on the importance of these different sources of uncertainty can help to design future assessments of flood risk, and to identify areas of focus for further research that aims to reduce existing uncertainties. Here we investigate the role of four sources of epistemic uncertainty affecting the estimation of flood loss for changed climate conditions for a meso-scale, pre-alpine catchment. These are: the choice of a scenario-neutral method, climate projection uncertainty, hydrological model parameter sets, and the choice of the vulnerability function. To efficiently simulate a large number of loss estimates, a surrogate inundation model was used. 46,500 loss estimates were selected according to the change in annual mean precipitation and temperature of an ensemble of regional climate models, and considered for the attribution of uncertainty. Large uncertainty was found in the estimated loss for a 100-year flood event with losses ranging from a decrease of loss compared to est...Continue Reading

Citations

Jun 23, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Dominik PaprotnyKai Schröter

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