Latent structure in random sequences drives neural learning toward a rational bias

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Yanlong SunHongbin Wang

Abstract

People generally fail to produce random sequences by overusing alternating patterns and avoiding repeating ones-the gambler's fallacy bias. We can explain the neural basis of this bias in terms of a biologically motivated neural model that learns from errors in predicting what will happen next. Through mere exposure to random sequences over time, the model naturally develops a representation that is biased toward alternation, because of its sensitivity to some surprisingly rich statistical structure that emerges in these random sequences. Furthermore, the model directly produces the best-fitting bias-gain parameter for an existing Bayesian model, by which we obtain an accurate fit to the human data in random sequence production. These results show that our seemingly irrational, biased view of randomness can be understood instead as the perfectly reasonable response of an effective learning mechanism to subtle statistical structure embedded in random sequences.

References

May 7, 2002·Psychological Review·Raymond S Nickerson
Sep 27, 1974·Science·A Tversky, D Kahneman
Aug 24, 2010·Cognitive Psychology·Yanlong Sun, Hongbin Wang
Mar 12, 2011·Science·Joshua B TenenbaumNoah D Goodman
Oct 9, 2012·Science·Wulfram GerstnerGustavo Deco
Aug 21, 2013·Nature Neuroscience·Alexandre PougetPeter E Latham
Jun 1, 2012·Current Directions in Psychological Science·Richard N Aslin, Elissa L Newport

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jun 3, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Yanlong SunHongbin Wang
Jun 3, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Aleksandar Aksentijevic
Dec 29, 2016·PLoS Computational Biology·Florent MeynielStanislas Dehaene

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Addiction

This feed focuses mechanisms underlying addiction and addictive behaviour including heroin and opium dependence, alcohol intoxication, gambling, and tobacco addiction.

Related Papers

Journal of Experimental Psychology
P C Vitz, T C Todd
Journal of Comparative and Physiological Psychology
K A Khavari, E H Eisman
Journal of Cardiovascular Electrophysiology
L Littmann, M H Monroe
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved