Nov 16, 2019

Latitudes mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors: A nationwide modelling analysis in 45 Japanese prefectures from 2000 to 2018

The Science of the Total Environment
Ka Chun ChongAyako Sumi

Abstract

Cold and dry conditions were well-documented as a major determinant of influenza seasonality in temperate countries but the association may not be consistent when the climate in temperate areas is closer to that in sub-tropical areas. We hypothesized latitudes may mediate the association between influenza activity and meteorological factors in 45 Japanese prefectures. We used the weekly incidence of influenza-like illness of 45 prefectures from 2000 to 2018 as a proxy for influenza activity in Japan, a temperate country lying off the east coast of Asia. A combination of generalized additive model and distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to investigate the associations between meteorological factors (average temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall, and actual vapour pressure, a proxy for absolute humidity) and the influenza incidence. Kendall's tau b (τ) and Spearman correlation coefficient (rs) between latitude and the adjusted relative risk (ARR) of each meteorological factor were also assessed. A higher vapour pressure was significantly associated with a lower influenza risk but the ARR strongly weakened along with a lower latitude (τ = -0.23, p-value = 0.02; rs = -0.33, p-value = 0.03). Lower temperature and lo...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

Study
Influenza
Influenza A virus
Documented
Microtubule-Associated Protein Tau
Analysis
Japanese Race

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