Left turn crash risk analysis: Development of a microsimulation modeling approach

Accident; Analysis and Prevention
Justice AppiahBenjamin H Cottrell

Abstract

The use of traffic simulation to analyze complex transportation issues has become common practice in transportation engineering. The further application of microsimulation to the analysis of traffic safety in a systematic, rigorous, and controlled fashion is becoming increasingly viable as simulation models improve and tools for quantifying surrogate safety measures become readily accessible. Using a calibrated traffic microsimulation model and surrogate safety assessment model analysis, this paper examined how the risk for left-turn crashes varied as traffic conditions changed at a signalized intersection. Safety impacts for 750 unique combinations of intersection geometry, traffic, and signal timing parameters were simulated and the number of left-turn conflicts per hour noted. Results of the simulation analyses were used to develop statistical models that expressed the risk of occurrence of a left-turn crash during a given hour as a function of the left-turn phasing mode and prevailing conditions during that hour. The study was motivated by the recent widespread application of the flashing yellow arrow (FYA) which provides the opportunity to vary left-turn phasing mode by time of day-potentially leading to more efficient tra...Continue Reading

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