Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Felipe J Colón-GonzálezIain R Lake

Abstract

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a...Continue Reading

References

Jan 1, 1987·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·D M WattsA Nisalak
Oct 6, 1997·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·T H Jetten, D A Focks
Feb 7, 1998·Environmental Health Perspectives·J A PatzT H Jetten
Jun 8, 2001·Bioinformatics·O TroyanskayaR B Altman
May 2, 2006·Advances in Parasitology·D J Rogers, S E Randolph
Apr 12, 2008·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Pankaj GargSuranjith L Seneviratne
Jul 16, 2008·Dysphagia·H C A BogaardtW J Fokkens
Oct 22, 2008·American Journal of Preventive Medicine·Howard FrumkinJeremy J Hess
Jan 13, 2009·Clinical Microbiology Reviews·Denise L DoolanJ Kevin Baird
May 19, 2009·Lancet·Diarmid Campbell-LendrumAnthony McMichael
Jan 26, 2010·Microbes and Infection·Cassie C Jansen, Nigel W Beebe
Dec 12, 2012·PloS One·Miranda Chan, Michael A Johansson
Apr 9, 2013·Nature·Samir BhattSimon I Hay
Jun 14, 2013·International Journal of Epidemiology·Krishnan BhaskaranBen Armstrong
Nov 19, 2013·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Felipe J Colón-GonzálezPaul R Hunter
Nov 30, 2013·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·Christovam Barcellos, Rachel Lowe
Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Franziska PiontekHans Joachim Schellnhuber
Mar 7, 2014·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Cyril CaminadeSimon J Lloyd
Jan 1, 2009·Language Learning and Development : the Official Journal of the Society for Language Development·Daniel J WeissAaron D Mitchel
Oct 4, 2014·Nature·David G Victor, Charles F Kennel
Nov 5, 2014·The New England Journal of Medicine·Luis VillarUNKNOWN CYD15 Study Group
Nov 21, 2014·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Donald S ShepardDuane J Gubler
Feb 18, 2015·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Lindsay P CampbellA Townsend Peterson
Mar 3, 2015·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Jane P MessinaSimon I Hay
Jun 27, 2015·Lancet·Nick WattsAnthony Costello
Feb 3, 2016·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Elsa SartiR Leon Ochiai
Apr 20, 2016·ELife·Jane P MessinaSimon I Hay
Oct 21, 2016·Environmental Research·Kristie L Ebi, Joshua Nealon
Dec 21, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Cyril CaminadeMatthew Baylis
Jul 18, 2017·PloS One·Fernando Jose AntonioRenio Dos Santos Mendes

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Mar 29, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Sadie J RyanLeah R Johnson
Jan 22, 2020·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Jian ChengWenbiao Hu
Jan 30, 2020·Environmental Health : a Global Access Science Source·Cristina BradatanSharmistha Swain
Jun 20, 2019·Nature Reviews. Microbiology·Ricardo CavicchioliNicole S Webster
Jan 29, 2021·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Rachel TidmanRafael Ruiz de Castañeda
Mar 5, 2021·PLoS Medicine·Felipe J Colón-GonzálezRachel Lowe
Apr 17, 2020·IScience·Alejandra Rodríguez-VerdugoPamela Yeh
Jul 17, 2021·Current Environmental Health Reports·Sutyajeet SonejaDao Khanh Tung

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

IMAGE
R
Climate Data Operators
ClimGen
R raster package
Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Earth System M...
LATAM
bcv package
Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment ( IMAGE )

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.