Abstract
An accurate quantitative relationship between key characteristics of an insect population, such as season-long and peak abundances, can be very useful in pest management programs. To the best of our knowledge, no such relationship has yet been established. Here we establish a predictive linear relationship between insect catch Mpw during the week of peak abundance, the length of seasonal flight period, F (number of weeks) and season-long cumulative catch (abundance) A = 0.41MpwF. The derivation of the equation is based on several general assumptions and does not involve fitting to experimental data, which implies generality of the result. A quantitative criterion for the validity of the model is presented. The equation was tested using extensive data collected on captures of male gypsy moths Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Erebidae) in pheromone-baited traps during 15 years. The model was also tested using trap catch data for two species of mosquitoes, Culex pipiens (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), in Gravid and BG-sentinel mosquito traps, respectively. The simple, parameter-free equation approximates experimental data points with relative error of 13% and R2 = 0.997, across all o...Continue Reading
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