Local and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity

BMC Medicine
Sean M MooreT Alex Perkins

Abstract

Mathematical models of transmission dynamics are routinely fitted to epidemiological time series, which must inevitably be aggregated at some spatial scale. Weekly case reports of chikungunya have been made available nationally for numerous countries in the Western Hemisphere since late 2013, and numerous models have made use of this data set for forecasting and inferential purposes. Motivated by an abundance of literature suggesting that the transmission of this mosquito-borne pathogen is localized at scales much finer than nationally, we fitted models at three different spatial scales to weekly case reports from Colombia to explore limitations of analyses of nationally aggregated time series data. We adapted the recently developed Disease Transmission Kernel (DTK)-Dengue model for modeling chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission, given the numerous similarities of these viruses vectored by a common mosquito vector. We fitted versions of this model specified at different spatial scales to weekly case reports aggregated at different spatial scales: (1) single-patch national model fitted to national data; (2) single-patch departmental models fitted to departmental data; and (3) multi-patch departmental models fitted to department...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 5, 2019·Pathogens and Disease·Cliff C Kerr
Oct 20, 2018·BMC Medicine·G Chowell, R Rothenberg
Feb 3, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Ayesha S MahmudCaroline O Buckee
May 27, 2021·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Sophie A LeeRachel Lowe
Aug 24, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Larisa Lee-CruzAnnelise Tran
Sep 12, 2021·Nature Communications·Rachel J OidtmanT Alex Perkins

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Software Mentioned

DTK
SIVIGILA
OptimTool
Epidemiological Modeling Disease Transmission Kernel ( EMOD - ...
EMOD

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