Logistical feasibility and potential benefits of a population-wide passive-immunotherapy program during an influenza pandemic.
Abstract
Treatment strategies for severe cases of pandemic influenza have focused on antiviral therapies. In contrast, passive immunotherapy with convalescent blood products has received limited attention. We consider the hypothesis that a passive-immunotherapy program that collects plasma from a small percentage of recovered adults can harvest sufficient convalescent plasma to treat a substantial percentage of severe cases during a pandemic. We use a mathematical model to estimate the demand and supply of passive immunotherapy during an influenza pandemic in Hong Kong. If >5% of 20- to 55-year-old individuals recovered from symptomatic infection donate their plasma (donor percentage > 5%), >67% of severe cases can be offered convalescent plasma transfusion (treatment coverage > 67%) in a moderately severe epidemic (R (0) < 1.4 with 0.5% of symptomatic cases becoming severe). A donor percentage of 5% is comparable to the average blood donation rate of 38.1 donations per 1,000 people in developed countries. Increasing the donor percentage above 15% does not significantly boost the convalescent plasma supply because supply is constrained by plasmapheresis capacity during most stages of the epidemic. The demand-supply balance depends on th...Continue Reading
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References
Meta-analysis: convalescent blood products for Spanish influenza pneumonia: a future H5N1 treatment?
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