Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway

BMJ Open
Bo Terning HansenMari Nygård

Abstract

Examine long-term incidence trends of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer in Norway, and estimate the number of cancer cases preventable by vaccines against HPV 16/18 or HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58. Observational registry-based study. We extracted incident cases of HPV-related cancer during 1953-2015 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Tumour HPV prevalence estimates from large international meta-analyses or from Norway were used to estimate the protective potential of HPV vaccines. The Norwegian population. Incidence trend analyses during 1953-2015 for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix, vulva, vagina, oropharynx, anus and penis, and adenocarcinoma of the cervix. Additionally, the number of cancer cases preventable by HPV vaccination. Among women, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx, vulva and cervical adenocarcinoma increased, while vaginal SCC showed no trend. For these cancers combined, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) during 1953-2015 was 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6). The incidence of cervical SCC generally decreased during 1976-2004 and remained stable thereafter. Among men, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx and penis increased. The AAPC during 1953-2015 combined for all male HPV-related ca...Continue Reading

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