Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms

Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Angela Bullanday ScottMarta Hernandez-Jover

Abstract

This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5 × 10-4; 5% and 95%, 5.7 × 10-4-0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6 × 10-4 a...Continue Reading

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Apr 25, 2018·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Angela Bullanday ScottMarta Hernandez-Jover

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Apr 25, 2018·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Angela Bullanday ScottMarta Hernandez-Jover

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