Lung cancer in South Africa: a forecast to 2025 based on smoking prevalence data

BMJ Open
Volker WinklerHeiko Becher

Abstract

This study aims to forecast lung cancer mortality with respect to recent changes in smoking prevalence and compares the results to estimates from GLOBOCAN and the Global Burden of Disease study. An established epidemiological model is applied to detailed smoking prevalence data from South Africa to estimate lung cancer mortality from 2010 to 2025. Data from the South Africa Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2003 was analysed by sex and ethnic group, and combined with longitudinal estimates on smoking prevalence from 1980 to 2010. Results provide detailed data on tobacco smoking behaviour by age, sex and ethnic group as well as modelled age-adjusted lung cancer mortality and number of yearly lung cancer deaths. From 2010 to 2025, a decrease in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality is shown from 17.1 to 14.1 among men; whereas rates were stable around 7.2 among women. As a consequence, the estimated number of yearly lung cancer deaths is expected to increase slightly for men and more for women. With respect to ethnic groups, male mortality is expected to be highest for Asians and lowest for blacks. Female rates were lowest for Asians and highest for whites and for coloured. Mortality estimates of this study are close to the...Continue Reading

References

Oct 1, 1966·Gut·M J LangmanJ Wilson
Oct 8, 1994·BMJ : British Medical Journal·R DollI Sutherland
Sep 25, 2002·Journal of Internal Medicine·H KuperH-O Adami
Apr 4, 2003·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Masahiko AndoUNKNOWN JACC Study Group
Jun 24, 2004·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Richard DollIsabelle Sutherland
Sep 17, 2004·Das Gesundheitswesen·W HoffmannU Latza
May 18, 2006·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Michael J ThunEugenia E Calle
Feb 10, 2007·Journal of Clinical Oncology : Official Journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology·Heather A WakeleeDee W West
Jan 6, 2009·Cancer Causes & Control : CCC·Nawi NgHeiko Becher
Dec 2, 2010·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Heiko Becher, Volker Winkler
Mar 23, 2011·Lung Cancer : Journal of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer·Volker WinklerHeiko Becher
Aug 29, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Theodore R Holford, David T Levy
Mar 15, 2013·European Journal of Cancer : Official Journal for European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) [and] European Association for Cancer Research (EACR)·J FerlayF Bray
Oct 24, 2013·South African Medical Journal = Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif Vir Geneeskunde·Priscilla ReddyAnthony Mbewu
Jan 9, 2014·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·Marie NgEmmanuela Gakidou
May 9, 2014·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Frouke M EngelaerRudi G J Westendorp

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jul 2, 2016·Journal of Thoracic Oncology : Official Publication of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer·Ting-Yuan David ChengMary E Reid
Mar 10, 2016·Ciência & saúde coletiva·Colin BrownLéo Heller
Nov 9, 2019·International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health·Sithembile L MabilaJill Murray
Dec 7, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Hadii M MamuduAdekunle Oke
Jun 6, 2020·The Pan African Medical Journal·Buhle LubuzoKhumbulani Hlongwana
May 7, 2021·Palliative & Supportive Care·Buhle LubuzoThemba Ginindza

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

GLOBOCAN

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Lung Cancer : Journal of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer
Volker WinklerHeiko Becher
CA: a Cancer Journal for Clinicians
Ahmedin JemalAmerican Cancer Society
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved