Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model.

Veterinary Research
Martin J GreenWilliam J Browne

Abstract

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. Th...Continue Reading

References

Jul 29, 1999·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·A G ChessaJ D Habbema
Sep 10, 1999·Journal of Dairy Science·H W BarkemaA Brand
Oct 3, 2002·The Veterinary Journal·A Bradley
Dec 4, 2003·Statistics in Medicine·David J Spiegelhalter, Nicola G Best
Mar 6, 2007·The Veterinary Record·M J GreenA J Bradley

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