Mapping HIV prevalence using population and antenatal sentinel-based HIV surveys: a multi-stage approach

Population Health Metrics
Samuel MandaRenate Meyer

Abstract

Sound public health policy on HIV/AIDS depends on accurate prevalence and incidence statistics for the epidemic at both local and national levels. However, HIV statistics derived from epidemiological extrapolation models and data sources have a number of limitations that may lead to under- or overestimation of the epidemic. Thus, adjustment techniques need to be employed to correctly estimate the size of the HIV burden. A multi-stage methodological approach is proposed to obtain HIV statistics at subnational levels by combining nationally population-based and antenatal clinic HIV data. The stages range from computing inverse probability weighting (IPW) for consenting to HIV testing, to HIV status prediction modelling, to the recently developed Bayesian multivariate spatial models to jointly model and map multiple HIV risks. The 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (MDHS 2010) and the 2010 Malawi Antenatal Clinic (ANC 2010) Sentinel HIV data were used for analyses. Gender, residence, employment, marital status, ethnicity, condom use, and multiple sex partners were considered when estimating HIV prevalence. The observed MDHS 2010 HIV prevalence among people aged 15-49 years was 10.15 %, with 95 % confidence interval (CI) of ...Continue Reading

Citations

Mar 13, 2018·Emerging Themes in Epidemiology·Miguel Marino, Marcello Pagano
Aug 17, 2020·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Amaury ThiabaudOlivia Keiser
May 2, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Samuel MandaRobert Bergquist
Sep 22, 2021·Journal of the International AIDS Society·Jeffrey W EatonRay W Shiraishi

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Software Mentioned

Spectrum / Estimation and Projection Package ( EPP )
Geographic Information Systems ( GIS )
WinBUGS
GeoBUGS

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