PMID: 16523808Mar 10, 2006Paper

Mathematical modelling of survival of glioblastoma patients suggests a role for radiotherapy dose escalation and predicts poorer outcome after delay to start treatment

Clinical Oncology : a Journal of the Royal College of Radiologists
N G BurnetNorman F Kirkby

Abstract

The outcome of patients with glioblastoma (GBM) remains extremely poor. We have developed a mathematical model, using pathological and radiation biology concepts, to assess the detrimental effect of delay to start radiotherapy, the possible benefit from dose escalation, and to extract biological data from clinical data. Survival data were available for 154 adult patients with GBM treated in our centre with curative intent to a dose of 60 Gy in 30 fractions between 1996 and 2002. Survival data for 129 patients from the 60 Gy arm of the MRC BR02 randomised trial of radiotherapy dose were obtained for comparison. The model generates the equivalent of individual patients with a brain tumour, and produces an explicit outcome, either death or survival. The tumour, assumed to be growing exponentially, causes normal cell damage in the brain, and death occurs when the number of normal brain cells falls below a critical level. The outcome for an individual patient is determined by values of the variables assigned by the model. Parameters for the single patient include tumour doubling time, surviving fraction of tumour cells after each fraction of radiotherapy, and a waiting time from presentation to the start of radiotherapy. A surrogate...Continue Reading

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