Mathematical models of human mobility of relevance to malaria transmission in Africa

Scientific Reports
John M MarshallNeil M Ferguson

Abstract

As Africa-wide malaria prevalence declines, an understanding of human movement patterns is essential to inform how best to target interventions. We fitted movement models to trip data from surveys conducted at 3-5 sites throughout each of Mali, Burkina Faso, Zambia and Tanzania. Two models were compared in terms of their ability to predict the observed movement patterns - a gravity model, in which movement rates between pairs of locations increase with population size and decrease with distance, and a radiation model, in which travelers are cumulatively "absorbed" as they move outwards from their origin of travel. The gravity model provided a better fit to the data overall and for travel to large populations, while the radiation model provided a better fit for nearby populations. One strength of the data set was that trips could be categorized according to traveler group - namely, women traveling with children in all survey countries and youth workers in Mali. For gravity models fitted to data specific to these groups, youth workers were found to have a higher travel frequency to large population centers, and women traveling with children a lower frequency. These models may help predict the spatial transmission of malaria paras...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 5, 2020·BMC Medicine·Ipsita SinhaRichard J Maude
Jul 28, 2018·International Journal of Health Geographics·Nick Warren RuktanonchaiAndrew J Tatem
Dec 25, 2019·Malaria Journal·Carlos A GuerraDavid L Smith
Aug 26, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John R GilesAmy Wesolowski
May 20, 2020·Nature Human Behaviour·Moritz U G KraemerJohn S Brownstein
Jan 15, 2021·Scientific Reports·Masaki Kotsubo, Tomoki Nakaya
Feb 12, 2021·PLoS Computational Biology·Constanze Ciavarella, Neil M Ferguson
May 1, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Daniel T CitronDavid L Smith
Jul 2, 2021·Nature·Caroline BuckeeLisa Sattenspiel
Dec 4, 2021·Scientific Reports·Hsiao-Han ChangRichard J Maude

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