Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies.

Tobacco Control
Belen Saenz de Miera JuarezJeffrey Drope

Abstract

To compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures. We used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017. A total of 2396 face-to-face interviews to adult smokers were conducted and 8204 discarded packs were collected. To determine whether cigarette packs were intended for the Mexican market, we analysed pack features required by Mexican regulations and self-reported brands of the last purchase. Standard statistical tests to compare proportions were employed. Correlates of illicit cigarette use were also analysed. The share of cigarettes not intended for the Mexican market was 8.8% based on the analysis of discarded packs and 7.6% based on the survey of smokers, that is, the difference was small and only borderline significant overall (p=0.055). Also, both results were lower than those presented by the tobacco industry (16.6%). However, differences across methods were statistically significant for various cities. Our results suggest that the optimal practice for the study of illicit trade is to cross validate estimates using ...Continue Reading

References

Feb 21, 2008·Tobacco Control·J A Jiménez-RuizM Hernández-Avila
Jan 17, 2013·Tobacco Control·Gary Jonas FooksKaren Evans-Reeves
Jun 25, 2013·Tobacco Control·Evan BlecherJohanna Birckmayer
Oct 12, 2013·Tobacco Control·Belén Sáenz de Miera JuárezFrank J Chaloupka
Feb 1, 2017·Tobacco Control·Mark GoodchildEdouard Tursan d'Espaignet
Dec 10, 2017·Tobacco Control·Rijo M John, Hana Ross
Jan 11, 2018·American Journal of Public Health·Stella A Bialous, Stanton A Glantz
Aug 24, 2018·Tobacco Control·Allen W A GallagherAnna B Gilmore
Dec 17, 2018·Tobacco Control·Guillermo ParajeJeffrey Drope

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Citations

Oct 11, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Vaida Liutkutė-GumarovJustina Vaitkevičiūtė
Nov 5, 2020·Tobacco Control·Mark GoodchildAnne-Marie Perucic
Apr 10, 2021·Tobacco Control·Maria Elisabet PizarroMichal Stoklosa

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