Mind the Gap: Changes in Cigarette Prices After California's Tax Increase

Tobacco Regulatory Science
Lisa HenriksenRebecca Williams

Abstract

To investigate whether California's 2017 cigarette tax increase was passed onto smokers equally. Auditors recorded 4 cigarette prices in the same random sample of licensed tobacco retailers (N = 1049) before the tax increase (January-March 2017) and after (April-September 2018): Natural American Spirit (ultra-premium), Newport menthol (premium), and Pall Mall (value) all from the same manufacturer, and Marlboro (premium). Ordinary least squares regressions examined how the gap in prices (increase greater or less than $2.00 tax) varied by market segment and neighborhood demographics, controlling for store type and months since implementation. Paired t-tests assessed whether industry/retail revenue (price in excess of state and federal excise taxes) increased. Over-shifting (increase greater than tax) was evident for all 4 brands and was significantly greater for ultra-premium (Mean = $0.40, SD = 0.75) than premium (Mean = $0.25, SD = 0.78) and greater for premium than value brand (Mean = $0.16, SD = 0.67). However, under-shifting (increase less than tax) was evident for Newport in African-American neighborhoods and Pall Mall in Hispanic neighborhoods. After the tax increase, prices were significantly more likely to be discounted...Continue Reading

Citations

May 22, 2020·American Journal of Public Health·David C Boettiger, Justin S White
Jun 6, 2021·Tobacco Control·Doris G GammonElizabeth Andersen-Rodgers
Aug 11, 2021·Tobacco Control·Zaineb Danish SheikhAnna B Gilmore

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