Minimizing pest and disease risks in uncertain climates: CABI initiatives developing new technologies and tools for outreaching early warning to farmers.

OSF Preprints
Bryony TaylorCambria Finegold

Abstract

Abstract Recent climate models have projected a global temperature increase of at least 1.5-2°C on present day temperatures, including a high likelihood of an increase in extreme temperatures experienced in inhabited places. Changes to observed precipitation patterns are likely with several regions predicted to experience an increase in heavy precipitation and others likely to experience more drought, and a precipitation deficit. There is a growing body of evidence to suggest these changing climatic conditions affect the distribution and phenology of pests and diseases of agriculture. As ectothermic organisms, arthropod pests and fungal diseases are sensitive to changes in mean temperatures and temperature ranges to which they are exposed, with warmer average conditions likely to increase development rates and more extreme temperatures likely to have a negative impact on development. Models which incorporate climate change projections indicate that pests and diseases may shift or increase their ranges in line with warming temperatures. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with farmers reporting negative impacts on crop production and needing to change farming practices in response to...Continue Reading

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