Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Simon J O'HanlonMaría-Gloria Basáñez

Abstract

The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson's correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (aver...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 23, 2018·International Health·Michel BoussinesqAnnette C Kuesel
Mar 29, 2018·Infectious Diseases of Poverty·Robert ColebundersAdrian Hopkins
Sep 17, 2019·Parasites & Vectors·Obiora A EneanyaChristl A Donnelly
Sep 19, 2018·Parasites & Vectors·Obiora A EneanyaChristl A Donnelly
Feb 11, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Obiora A EneanyaPeter U Fischer
Apr 26, 2021·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Robert J HardwickRoy M Anderson
Apr 29, 2021·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Wilma A StolkMaría-Gloria Basáñez
Apr 25, 2021·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Martin WalkerMaria-Gloria Basáñez
Jul 29, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Elizabeth A CromwellDavid M Pigott

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Software Mentioned

MAP
REMO
CDTI
R environment for
APOC
geoRglm
Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis ( REMO )
GRUMP
WorldClim

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