Feb 12, 2016

Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Alex PerkinsAndrew J Tatem

Abstract

Zika virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that is rapidly spreading across the Americas. Due to a probable association between Zika virus infection and a congenital neurological disorder called microcephaly, the epidemic trajectory of this viral infection poses a significant concern for the nearly 15 million children born in the Americas each year. The potential magnitude of the ongoing Zika epidemic is exceedingly difficult to gauge based on existing data, due to a number of uncertainties that cloud the relationship between observed cases and true infections. As an alternative to methods that depend on unreliable case data, we developed and applied a new method that leverages highly spatially resolved data about drivers of Zika transmission to project that 1.1 (1.0-1.9) million infections in childbearing women and 64.2 (53.6-108.1) million infections across all demographic strata could occur before the first wave of the epidemic concludes. Our projection is largely consistent with annual, region-wide estimates of 53.8 (40.0-71.8) million infections by dengue virus, which has many similarities to Zika. Our projection is also consistent with state-level data from Brazil on confirmed, Zika-associated microcephaly cases, and it sugg...Continue Reading

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Mentioned in this Paper

TNS3
Virus Diseases
Projections and Predictions
Pathogenic Organism
Impacted Tooth
Research Project
Evaluation
Immunity, Herd
Conclude Resin
Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis

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