Modeling and Forecasting Vibrio Parahaemolyticus Concentrations in Oysters

Water Research
Peyman Namadi, Zhiqiang Deng

Abstract

Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V.p) is an epidemiologically significant pathogen that thrives in coastal waters where oysters are harvested, posing high risks to human health and shellfish industry and requiring effective forecasting models for emergency preparedness and interventions. This study sought to develop forecasting models with differing lead times, which are able to predict the level of V.p in oysters in advance to mitigate the health risk to the general public and the economic loss to the shellfish industry. The Random Forest method along with 227 sampling datasets from two different geographic locations were utilized to: (1) Identify the most critical environmental predictors controlling the level of V.p in oysters, (2) Select the most important time lags for the environmental predictors as model input variables, and (3) Develop four forecasting models (RF-1Day, RF-2Day, RF-3Day, and RF-4Day) with the lead time of one to four days. The uncertainty involved in model predictions was quantified using the bootstrapping method. Results showed that V.p abundance in oysters is controlled by antecedent environmental conditions 1-11 days before. The antecedent environmental conditions can be described using time-lagged Sea Surfac...Continue Reading

References

Sep 1, 1972·Applied Microbiology·J R MolendaT A Dadisman
May 24, 2000·The Journal of Infectious Diseases·N A DanielsL Slutsker
Nov 25, 2003·Journal of Chemical Information and Computer Sciences·Vladimir SvetnikBradley P Feuston
Jul 5, 2005·Foodborne Pathogens and Disease·P S Marie Yeung, Kathryn J Boor
Jan 27, 2007·BMC Bioinformatics·Carolin StroblTorsten Hothorn
Apr 10, 2007·Food Microbiology·Yi-Cheng Su, Chengchu Liu
Feb 9, 2011·Journal of Water and Health·Pinar Omur-Ozbek, Andrea M Dietrich
Apr 2, 2015·Environmental Health Perspectives·Sharon Levy
Jul 18, 2015·Microbiology Spectrum·Crystal N Johnson
Jul 18, 2015·Microbiology Spectrum·James D Oliver
Nov 4, 2015·Environmental Health Perspectives·Jiao Wang, Zhiqiang Deng
Feb 17, 2017·PloS One·Tomislav HenglBas Kempen
Aug 27, 2017·Applied and Environmental Microbiology·Benjamin J K DavisFrank C Curriero
Sep 3, 2017·Marine Environmental Research·Shima Shamkhali Chenar, Zhiqiang Deng
Oct 12, 2017·Environmental Health Perspectives·Jan C SemenzaJoacim Rocklöv
Dec 13, 2017·Environment International·Shima Shamkhali Chenar, Zhiqiang Deng
Apr 2, 2018·Environmental Health Perspectives·Sharon Levy

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.