Modeling and inference for infectious disease dynamics: a likelihood-based approach

Statistical Science : a Review Journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Carles Bretó

Abstract

Likelihood-based statistical inference has been considered in most scientific fields involving stochastic modeling. This includes infectious disease dynamics, where scientific understanding can help capture biological processes in so-called mechanistic models and their likelihood functions. However, when the likelihood of such mechanistic models lacks a closed-form expression, computational burdens are substantial. In this context, algorithmic advances have facilitated likelihood maximization, promoting the study of novel data-motivated mechanistic models over the last decade. Reviewing these models is the focus of this paper. In particular, we highlight statistical aspects of these models like overdispersion, which is key in the interface between nonlinear infectious disease modeling and data analysis. We also point out potential directions for further model exploration.

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Citations

Jun 7, 2019·Journal of the American Statistical Association·Carles BretóAaron A King
Sep 30, 2020·Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE·Xin-You Meng, Tao Zhang

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