Modeling Culicoides abundance in mainland France: implications for surveillance

Parasites & Vectors
Pierre VillardViviane Hénaux

Abstract

Biting midges of the genus Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are involved in the transmission of several viruses affecting humans and livestock, particularly bluetongue (BTV). Over the last decade, Culicoides surveillance has been conducted discontinuously and at various temporal and spatial scales in mainland France following the BTV epizootics in 2008-2009 and its reemergence and continuous circulation since 2015. The ability to predict seasonal dynamics and spatial abundance of Culicoides spp. is a key element in identifying periods and areas at high risk of transmission in order to strengthen surveillance for early detection and to establish seasonally disease-free zones. The objective of this study was to model the abundance of Culicoides spp. using surveillance data. A mixed-effect Poisson model, adjusted for overdispersion and taking into account temperature data at each trap location, was used to model the weekly relative abundance of Culicoides spp. over a year in 24 vector zones, based on surveillance data collected during 2009-2012. Vector zones are the spatial units used for Culicoides surveillance since 2016 in mainland France. The curves of the predicted annual abundance of Culicoides spp. in vector ...Continue Reading

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R package pROC
R package tis
splines
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