Modeling Epidemics in Seed Systems and Landscapes To Guide Management Strategies: The Case of Sweet Potato in Northern Uganda.

Phytopathology
K F AndersenK A Garrett

Abstract

Seed systems are critical for deployment of improved varieties but also can serve as major conduits for the spread of seedborne pathogens. As in many other epidemic systems, epidemic risk in seed systems often depends on the structure of networks of trade, social interactions, and landscape connectivity. In a case study, we evaluated the structure of an informal sweet potato seed system in the Gulu region of northern Uganda for its vulnerability to the spread of emerging epidemics and its utility for disseminating improved varieties. Seed transaction data were collected by surveying vine sellers weekly during the 2014 growing season. We combined data from these observed seed transactions with estimated dispersal risk based on village-to-village proximity to create a multilayer network or "supranetwork." Both the inverse power law function and negative exponential function, common models for dispersal kernels, were evaluated in a sensitivity analysis/uncertainty quantification across a range of parameters chosen to represent spread based on proximity in the landscape. In a set of simulation experiments, we modeled the introduction of a novel pathogen and evaluated the influence of spread parameters on the selection of villages f...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 6, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Robin N Thompson, Ellen Brooks-Pollock
Mar 22, 2021·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·F M HamelinV A Bokil
Jul 28, 2021·Plant Molecular Biology·Vasthi Alonso ChavezC Finn McQuaid
Dec 1, 2021·PloS One·Christopher E BuddenhagenM Philip Rolston

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R
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HarvestPlus
R package geosphere
INA R
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