Modeling Importations and Exportations of Infectious Diseases via Travelers

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Luis Fernandez LopezEduardo Massad

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to estimate the risk of infection importation and exportation by travelers. Two countries are considered: one disease-free country and one visited or source country with a running endemic or epidemic infectious disease. Two models are considered. In the first model (disease importation), susceptible individuals travel from their disease-free home country to the endemic country and come back after some weeks. The risk of infection spreading in their home country is then estimated supposing the visitors are submitted to the same force of infection as the local population but do not contribute to it. In the second model (disease exportation), it is calculated the probability that an individual from the endemic (or epidemic) country travels to a disease-free country in the condition of latent infected and eventually introduces the infection there. The input of both models is the force of infection at the visited/source country, assumed known. The models are deterministic, but a preliminary stochastic formulation is presented as an appendix. The models are exemplified with two distinct real situations: the risk of dengue importation from Thailand to Europe and the risk of Ebola exportation from Liberia to th...Continue Reading

References

Oct 1, 1994·Mathematical Biosciences·E MassadM N Burattini
Oct 9, 2003·Journal of Travel Medicine·Annelies Wilder-Smith, David O Freedman
May 17, 2005·Medical Hypotheses·Eduardo MassadFrancisco A B Coutinho
May 27, 2005·Vaccine·Eduardo MassadCláudio José Struchiner
Aug 5, 2006·Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease·Annelies Wilder-Smith
Oct 3, 2006·Medical Hypotheses·Eduardo MassadLuiz Fernandes Lopez
Jan 9, 2007·PloS One·Peter CaleyDavid J Philp
Oct 25, 2007·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·A Wilder-Smith, P A Tambyah
Feb 22, 2008·Nature·Kate E JonesPeter Daszak
Aug 1, 2008·Journal of Travel Medicine·Karin LederJoseph Torresi
Jun 23, 2009·Journal of Travel Medicine·Eduardo Massad, Annelies Wilder-Smith
Jul 1, 2009·The New England Journal of Medicine·Kamran KhanMichael Gardam
Apr 30, 2010·Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz·Eduardo MassadCláudio José Struchiner
Mar 27, 2012·Parasitology·A J TatemY Qiu
Mar 28, 2012·Global Health Action·Annelies Wilder-SmithDuane Gubler
Jun 2, 2012·Epidemiology and Infection·E MassadA Wilder-Smith
Jun 15, 2013·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Karin LederUNKNOWN GeoSentinel Surveillance Network
May 6, 2014·Lancet·Mikkel QuamAnnelies Wilder-Smith
May 28, 2014·Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz·Eduardo MassadMarcelo Nascimento Burattini
Nov 22, 2014·Science·Abhishek PandeyAlison P Galvani
Nov 25, 2014·Epidemiology and Infection·M AmakuE Massad
Dec 3, 2014·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Joseph A LewnardAlison P Galvani
Feb 3, 2015·PLoS Currents·Marcelo F C GomesAlessandro Vespignani

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 20, 2016·Global Health Action·Eduardo MassadAnnelies Wilder-Smith
Nov 18, 2017·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Raquel Martins LanaCláudia Torres Codeço
Oct 31, 2018·Current Infectious Disease Reports·Annelies Wilder-Smith
Nov 10, 2018·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Shengjie LaiHongjie Yu
Mar 17, 2018·Scientific Reports·Eduardo MassadAnnelies Wilder-Smith
Jul 5, 2017·Epidemiology and Infection·E MassadA Wilder-Smith
Dec 14, 2017·Global Health Action·A Wilder-SmithE Massad
Jul 16, 2019·Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases·Annelies Wilder-Smith
Aug 4, 2018·Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine·Marcos AmakuEduardo Massad
Aug 20, 2019·Journal of Travel Medicine·Scott Halstead, Annelies Wilder-Smith
Apr 21, 2017·Journal of Travel Medicine·Annelies Wilder-Smith, W Y Leong
Sep 8, 2016·Journal of Travel Medicine·Mikkel B Quam, Annelies Wilder-Smith
Apr 19, 2018·BMC Infectious Diseases·A Wilder-Smith, E Massad
Aug 8, 2019·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Margaux Marie Isabelle MesléJonathan Michael Read
Feb 2, 2021·Tropical Diseases, Travel Medicine and Vaccines·A Wilder-Smith
Jun 18, 2021·Scientific Reports·K M Ariful KabirJun Tanimoto
Sep 13, 2021·Journal of Travel Medicine·Xiaorong YangShaowei Sang

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.