Modeling influenza transmission dynamics with media coverage data of the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Korea

PloS One
Yunhwan KimSunmi Lee

Abstract

Recurrent outbreaks of the influenza virus continue to pose a serious health threat all over the world. The role of mass media becomes increasingly important in modeling infectious disease transmission dynamics since it can provide public health information that influences risk perception and health behaviors. Motivated by the recent 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic outbreak in South Korea, a mathematical model has been developed. In this work, a previous influenza transmission model is modified by incorporating two distinct media effect terms in the transmission rate function; (1) a theory-based media effect term is defined as a function of the number of infected people and its rage of change and (2) a data-based media effect term employs the real-world media coverage data during the same period of the 2009 influenza outbreak. The transmission rate and the media parameters are estimated through the least-squares fitting of the influenza model with two media effect terms to the 2009 H1N1 cumulative number of confirmed cases. The impacts of media effect terms are investigated in terms of incidence and cumulative incidence. Our results highlight that the theory-based and data-based media effect terms have almost the same influence on...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 9, 2020·Dalton Transactions : an International Journal of Inorganic Chemistry·Raphael E F de PaivaFernando R G Bergamini

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Software Mentioned

MATLAB
fimincon

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