Modeling post-death transmission of Ebola: challenges for inference and opportunities for control

Scientific Reports
Joshua S Weitz, Jonathan Dushoff

Abstract

Multiple epidemiological models have been proposed to predict the spread of Ebola in West Africa. These models include consideration of counter-measures meant to slow and, eventually, stop the spread of the disease. Here, we examine one component of Ebola dynamics that is of ongoing concern - the transmission of Ebola from the dead to the living. We do so by applying the toolkit of mathematical epidemiology to analyze the consequences of post-death transmission. We show that underlying disease parameters cannot be inferred with confidence from early-stage incidence data (that is, they are not "identifiable") because different parameter combinations can produce virtually the same epidemic trajectory. Despite this identifiability problem, we find robustly that inferences that don't account for post-death transmission tend to underestimate the basic reproductive number - thus, given the observed rate of epidemic growth, larger amounts of post-death transmission imply larger reproductive numbers. From a control perspective, we explain how improvements in reducing post-death transmission of Ebola may reduce the overall epidemic spread and scope substantially. Increased attention to the proportion of post-death transmission has the p...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 10, 2015·ELife·Jean-Paul ChretienDylan B George
Jul 21, 2015·Scientific Reports·L D ValdezL A Braunstein
Aug 25, 2015·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Cameron BrowneGlenn Webb
Jul 8, 2016·Scientific Reports·J C Blackwood, L M Childs
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Jun 11, 2021·Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals·Vinicius Piccirillo

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