Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake

The Science of the Total Environment
Nicholas J MessinaAria Amirbahman

Abstract

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or wind...Continue Reading

References

Dec 6, 2005·Environmental Science & Technology·Jirí KopácekAria Amirbahman
Jan 20, 2007·The Science of the Total Environment·Bjorn A LakeAria Amirbahman
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Citations

Dec 29, 2020·The Science of the Total Environment·Maria Conceição LopesTeresa Cristina Tarlé Pissarra

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