Modeling the effects of developmental variation on insect phenology

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
Brian P Yurk, James A Powell

Abstract

Phenology, the timing of developmental events such as oviposition or pupation, is highly dependent on temperature; since insects are ectotherms, the time it takes them to complete a life stage (development time) depends on the temperatures they experience. This dependence varies within and between populations due to variation among individuals that is fixed within a life stage (giving rise to what we call persistent variation) and variation from random effects within a life stage (giving rise to what we call random variation). It is important to understand how both types of variation affect phenology if we are to predict the effects of climate change on insect populations.We present three nested phenology models incorporating increasing levels of variation. First, we derive an advection equation to describe the temperature-dependent development of a population with no variation in development time. This model is extended to incorporate persistent variation by introducing a developmental phenotype that varies within a population, yielding a phenotype-dependent advection equation. This is further extended by including a diffusion term describing random variation in a phenotype-dependent Fokker-Planck development equation. These m...Continue Reading

References

Feb 21, 1977·Journal of Theoretical Biology·P J Sharpe, D W DeMichele
May 7, 1977·Journal of Theoretical Biology·P J SharpeC L Cole
Oct 4, 2000·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·J A PowellB J Bentz
Feb 24, 2001·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·M E Visser, L J Holleman
May 26, 2001·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·J L JenkinsB J Bentz
Nov 4, 2004·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Estella GilbertBarbara J Bentz
Apr 6, 2005·Theoretical Population Biology·James A Powell, Jesse A Logan
Jun 28, 2007·Ecology Letters·Jane MemmottMary V Price
Dec 23, 2008·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Brian P Yurk, James A Powell

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