Modeling the Growth of Infrarenal Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Aorta : Official Journal of the Aortic Institute at Yale-New Haven Hospital
Marc A BaileyD Julian A Scott

Abstract

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth is a complex process that is incompletely understood. Significant heterogeneity in growth trajectories between patients has led to difficulties in accurately modeling aneurysm growth across cohorts of patients. We set out to compare four models of aneurysm growth commonly used in the literature and confirm which best fits the patient data of our AAA cohort. Patients with AAA were included in the study if they had two or more abdominal ultrasound scans greater than 3 months apart. Patients were censored from analysis once their AAA exceeded 5.5 cm. Four models were applied using the R environment for statistical computing. Growth estimates and goodness of fit (using the Akaike Information Criterion, AIC) were compared, with p-values based on likelihood ratio testing. Of 510 enrolled patients, 264 met the inclusion criteria, yielding a total of 1861 imaging studies during 932 cumulative years of surveillance. Overall, growth rates were: (1) 0.35 (0.31,0.39) cm/yr in the growth/time calculation, (2) 0.056 (0.042,0.068) cm/yr in the linear regression model, (3) 0.19 (0.17,0.21) cm/yr in the linear multilevel model, and (4) 0.21 (0.18,0.24) cm/yr in the quadratic multilevel model at time 0, slo...Continue Reading

Citations

Aug 24, 2018·The British Journal of Surgery·H ShiwaniD J A Scott
Jun 13, 2014·Hypertension Research : Official Journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension·Marc A BaileyD Julian A Scott
Mar 26, 2021·Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis, and Vascular Biology·Michael BellMarc A Bailey

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